Innovation has been the driver of the extraordinary progress from which humankind has benefited for a couple of centuries, but it faces a largely hidden threat: Innovation is becoming harder and more expensive. It’s instructive here to take the long view. For most of recorded human history, improvements in human welfare from generation to generation have been limited. Take, for example, GDP per capita as a measure of economic prosperity. For most of human history, roughly until the early 1800s, the measure barely moved to $1,200. But since that time, it has grown by more than 14 times (Exhibit 1).1 Human health has followed a similar trajectory—low for centuries and only significantly improving in recent generations. In 1900, for example, the average life expectancy of a newborn was 32 years. By 2021, this had more than doubled to 71 years.2
