The credential marketplace has exploded, yet without guardrails, workers face an opaque, high-stakes gamble, where distinguishing value from noise is increasingly urgent. Recent analysis of over 156 million U.S. resumes reveals clear patterns showing which credentials pay off, who benefits most, and why many non-degree credentials deliver little or no return. With Workforce Pell poised to direct billions into short-term programs, policymakers can take key steps to ensure accountability so that public dollars flow to credentials that genuinely advance workers’ mobility.