Existing measures of AI “exposure” overlook workers’ adaptive capacity—i.e., their varied ability to navigate job displacement. Accounting for these factors, around 70% of highly AI-exposed workers (26.5 million out of 37.1 million) are employed in jobs with a high average capacity to manage job transitions if necessary. At the same time, 6.1 million workers, primarily in clerical and administrative roles, lack adaptive capacity due to limited savings, advanced age, scarce local opportunities, and/or narrow skill sets. Of these workers, 86% are women. Geographically, highly AI-exposed occupations with low adaptive capacity make up a larger share of total employment in college towns and state capitals, particularly in the Mountain West and Midwest.
