Predicting Grade Points BEFORE Students Take Classes - Steve Kolowich, Inside Higher Ed

Austin Peay State University, students do not have to wait for the end of a semester to learn their grade averages. Thanks to a new technology, pioneered by the university’s provost, they do not even have to wait for the semester to start. Tristan Denley, the provost, has built software, called Degree Compass, that analyzes an individual student’s academic record, along with the past grades of hundreds of Austin Peay State students in various courses, and predicts how well a particular student is likely to do in a particular course long before the first day of class. But while it is not the only factor, the prediction engine is Degree Compass’s ace in the hole. In its first trial last fall, Degree Compass was able to able to predict students’ semester grade point average within two hundredths (0.02) of a point. The tool’s ability to predict student grades in a particular course, while not as precise, was still reasonably accurate, at sixth tenths (0.6) of a point.